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| Lee Glendon CBCI |
Big picture – long
picture1: the value of horizon scanning
How can you ensure
that your BCM programme and resources are allocated in a way proportionate to
the current and potential threats that the company is and will be facing?
That’s a real question one of our members faced last year
from her senior management team. While
some folk will be frustrated at the threat-oriented starting point of the
question, it is not an uncommon one as many practitioners will confirm. While ‘risk
assessment through threat evaluation’ may provide some assistance with the
question posed above, horizon scanning potentially provides a framework to
build out the situational picture. It
also provides an opportunity for a proactive stance by practitioners.
What is horizon scanning?
Well, Lyndon Bird FBCI presented the following definition at
last year’s Executive Forum when this topic was discussed, drawing on the
thoughts of the Consultative Committee of Sector Councils for Research:
Horizon scanning is
defined as the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and
likely future developments, including (but not restricted to) those at the
margins of current thinking and planning.
Horizon Scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as
persistent problems and threats.
The Horizon Scan 2013 Survey report took a two-layered
horizon scanning approach. The first
layer drew on members’ in-house ‘risk assessment through threat evaluation’ for
the 12-month period ahead, while the outer horizon focused on analysis of
trends and uncertainties; collectively this was termed horizon scanning. The objective of this approach was to look at
how the identified trends might be driving near term disruption and therefore
reveal the underlying cause of the problem.
The survey confirmed that most organizations in which BCI
members work perform longer-term trend analysis (77%) whether centralised
within a function such as strategy and risk or decentralised according to departmental
need. One of the challenges identified
in the survey is that 21% of business continuity practitioners in organizations
that perform trend analysis did not have access to the information. 29% are actively involved in the analysis,
while 48% use the inputs in their programme.
Using the information to inform exercise scenarios and future capability
development were two of the areas suggested in the survey. Only 3% of overall survey respondents did not
see the value of trend analysis information in their business continuity
activities.
The results of this year’s survey can be used to confirm or
update existing thinking around the threat horizon; they can also be used as
entry points into discussions across organizations to raise the relevance of
business continuity. For example, risk
factors are provided in annual filings for public companies – here are three
from one company’s 20F form:
- System disruptions and failures may result in customer dissatisfaction, customer loss of both, which could materially and adversely affect our reputation and business
- Our international operations expose us to risks associated with fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates that could adversely affect our business
- Political and economic conditions in the Middle East and other countries may adversely affect our business
Interestingly, there is little
comment on what plans are in place to deal with these risk factors should they
materialise. Perhaps someone should ask
and ensure that business continuity is part of the solution!
We want to research horizon scanning
concepts and methods a little further as a result of the survey. Our aim is to provide guidance on making
horizon scanning a key component of a proactive business continuity programme,
so that senior management does not need to ask the question posed at the
beginning of this post, rather we have taken the initiative to paint the
picture for them.
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